Keith,
have you had to produce the camera-ready copy for the age-banded JGR paper yet? If not, then is it possible to make some minor changes to it? For the comparison with the Mann et al. reconstruction, I had previously just taken their land&marine full northern hemisphere mean annual temperature time series and re-calibrated it against the instrumental land north of 20N Apr-Sep mean temperature time series. Well, I have not taken the Mann et al. spatial temperature field reconstructions, and computed a land north of 20N area mean.
I still have to re-calibrate it against the instrumental series because it is an annual rather than Apr-Sep mean. After doing all this, you'll be pleased to know that the final figure is only slightly different (the Mann et al. curve is very slightly more of an outlier during the 1500-1700 period, and is cooler and closer to observations post-1950, but not much different elsewhere). What does change, however, are the correlations. The correlations with instrumental data are slightly worse (from 0.76 to 0.73, and from 0.92 to 0.89 decadal), but I'm not sure that we show these anyway. But the cross-correlations between the Mann et al. and the other reconstructions (which we do show) are all stronger than previously - which now seems a little unfair on them.
(...)
I don't have a copy of the paper in front of me, but the 'before' values should match those in one of the tables. Some of the 50-yr smoothed new values are noticeably stronger.
Can we make these changes still, or is it too late? And do you think we should?
Cheers
Tim
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
- These are adjustments being made to five year average temperatures over the last century. I do not need to say where this comes from, do I? Blimey.
Samizdata
"No se puede tolerar el derroche. Es un ataque agresivo al medio ambiente y contra un bien no renovable. Aquellos que riegan canchas de golf y jardines parece que no viven en la ciudad, donde puede haber gente que se quede sin agua".
"Tenemos autoridad para actuar en los barrios cerrados. Y deben actuar inmediatamente los jueces en caso de que se impida el ingreso a los inspectores".
"Se pueden colocar cepos, porque esos consumidores que derrochan el agua están del lado del capitalismo más salvaje. Se recrean viendo el pasto verde mientras hay niños que no pueden tomar agua".
Luis Arias, director - Ente Regulador de Servicios Públicos
CNN is talking about something called 'Blog Action Day', which describes itself as follows:
Blog Action Day is an annual event held every October 15 that unites the world’s bloggers in posting about the same issue on the same day with the aim of sparking discussion around an issue of global importance. Blog Action Day 2009 will be one of the largest-ever social change events on the web.
Yet would anyone care to bet that when they say 'social' change (such as deciding to do something yourself, such as recycling your plastic bottles) a great many of the contributors are actually talking about 'political' change (using the collective means of coercion to force people under threat of violence to be more 'green').
Samizdata
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has been at the forefront of predicting doom in the arctic as ice melts due to global warming. In May, 2008 they went so far as to predict that the North Pole would be ice-free during the 2008 'melt season,' leading to a lively Slashdot discussion. Today, however, they say that they have been the victims of 'sensor drift' that led to an underestimation of Arctic ice extent by as much as 500,000 square kilometers.(Slashdot - HT: GLabatte)
