3 de diciembre de 2009

Cinco dígitos oscilantes

Keith,
have you had to produce the camera-ready copy for the age-banded JGR paper yet? If not, then is it possible to make some minor changes to it? For the comparison with the Mann et al. reconstruction, I had previously just taken their land&marine full northern hemisphere mean annual temperature time series and re-calibrated it against the instrumental land north of 20N Apr-Sep mean temperature time series. Well, I have not taken the Mann et al. spatial temperature field reconstructions, and computed a land north of 20N area mean.
I still have to re-calibrate it against the instrumental series because it is an annual rather than Apr-Sep mean. After doing all this, you'll be pleased to know that the final figure is only slightly different (the Mann et al. curve is very slightly more of an outlier during the 1500-1700 period, and is cooler and closer to observations post-1950, but not much different elsewhere). What does change, however, are the correlations. The correlations with instrumental data are slightly worse (from 0.76 to 0.73, and from 0.92 to 0.89 decadal), but I'm not sure that we show these anyway. But the cross-correlations between the Mann et al. and the other reconstructions (which we do show) are all stronger than previously - which now seems a little unfair on them.
(...)
I don't have a copy of the paper in front of me, but the 'before' values should match those in one of the tables. Some of the 50-yr smoothed new values are noticeably stronger.
Can we make these changes still, or is it too late? And do you think we should?
Cheers
Tim

Tomé al azar uno cualquiera de los mails filtrados del servidor del Climate Research Unit, y lo que puedo apreciar es la aplicación práctica del tradicional Método de los Cinco Dígitos Oscilantes...

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