19 de abril de 2012

De nuestra espía en Washington

Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference
April 17, 2012

QUESTION: I have two questions. First of all, the forecast for Argentina is 4.2 for 2012 and 4 for 2013. I want to know if that is the official figure that was built around the statistics of the INDEC, or you added some other information to do this forecast? Also, if there is a lot of difference between the private statistics that you are using, and the official one, the INDEC one? That is the first question. The second is about the announcement of President Kirchner yesterday. She announced that she is going nationalize 51 percent of the oil company. I want to know effect this could have in the forecast, taking into account that, of course, it is going to upset the investment climate.

Mr. Helbling - Starting with the latter on the investment climate, I think there has been some deterioration in the investment climate in Argentina over the past few years, that already built into the forecast. In general, discretionary government interventions that worsen the investment climate make it also more unpredictable, which is not helpful for investment, and long-term growth.

In terms of our forecast for Argentina, our country desk uses both official and unofficial figures in the preparation. Differences between official and unofficial figures generally are larger for inflation. Argentina has also been asked by the IMF to improve its CPI data.

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