Chances are...

In his marvelous book Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter L. Bernstein tells the story of a Soviet statistics professor in World War II who refused to go to his neighborhood bomb shelter during the frequent German air raids.

“There are seven million people in Moscow,” he would tell his concerned friends. Why should a bomb pick him, specifically, out of that crowd?

Then one night he showed up in the shelter, to the surprise of his neighbors. “There are seven million people in Moscow,” he explained, “and one elephant. Last night they got the elephant.”

Our reaction to identical probabilities can be distinctly colored by subjective interpretations. The probability of the professor being hit by a bomb was about the same as the elephant being hit by a bomb. But where the professor felt statistics were on his side as one of seven million, the elephant was unique. And always, someone has to be the elephant.

“We pay excessive attention to low-probability events accompanied by high drama,” Bernstein writes, “and overlook events that happen in routine fashion.”

(me dio fiaca buscar la cita exacta del libro, así que publico esta referencia sacada de aquí)

Mosquito

Según Foreign Policy, el gobierno argentino no sabe cómo manejar el brote de una de las 5 enfermedades más peligrosas que la fiebre porcina.
(Las otras 4 son el SIDA, el Ebola, la Meningitis, y el Colera)

DENGUE FEVER

What is it?

An infection spread by mosquitoes that causes acute muscle and joint pain. Cases are generally non-lethal but dengue occasionally results in a deadly hemorrhagic fever.

Where is it?

Dengue fever outbreaks have been reported in the tropics for centuries, but until 1970, only around 9 countries had been afflicted. Infections have spiked dramatically in dozens of countries in recent years, and there are now an estimated 50 million infections per year. Around two fifths of the world's population is currently at risk for the disease, according to the WHO. Latin America has been particularly susceptible. Unlike other mosquito borne-diseases, such as malaria, dengue affects both urban and rural areas.

Current outbreak:

While the world's attention has been focused on Mexico's swine flu, a severe dengue outbreak infected 50,000 people in Bolivia and more than 20,000 in Argentina. (Georgetown's Michael Shifter wrote for FP this week about how the Argentine government's slow response to the crisis has become a scandal in Buenos Aires.) Exact figures are difficult to obtain due to underreporting, but the death toll is thought to be in the hundreds. Australia is also struggling to contain a dengue outbreak that has infected nearly 1,000 people.

Cumpleaños

El sábado pasado, en el taterstall de Palermo, el gobernador del Chaco Jorge Capitanich y su señora esposa, la ministra de Salud, Sandra Mendoza agasajaron a alrededor de 300 personas con motivo del decimo quinto cumpleaños de su hija, estudiante ella del Colegio Santa Catherina, (...) Para ello no repararon en gastos: en una sola noche, se patinaron un mínimo de 30 mil dólares.

Ernesto Tenembaum

¿Se acuerdan del lío que le armaron a Domingo Cavallo sobre el fin del gobierno de De la Rua cuando se casó su hija?

Primero, la Caja

Urgente24:

Tratamiento del adelanto de elecciones, sí; emergencia sanitaria por el dengue, no: así funciona el Frente para la Victoria en el poder. La iniciativa –de autoría de la salteña Sonia Escudero- fue presentada el 4 de marzo, pero recién ingresó a la comisión de salud el 25. Allí será citada la ministra Graciela Ocaña el próximo martes 31/03. Sólo se aprobó una declaración manifestando “preocupación” y pidiendo informes.

Cómo se aprueba una "declaración manifestando preocupación"? Pues con el mismo espíritu de aquellos emperadores que, enterados de sucesos nefastos, guardaban unas lágrimas en un frasquito.

Urgente! Moreno a cazar mosquitos!

Hace apenas 8 días comentaba acá que el dengue se venía con toda en las tierras del Golden Boy Kapitanich. Ahora resulta que los 6 casos confirmados de entonces trocaron mágicamente en 1.163 y ya se reconoce la epidemia. 

Menos mal que el ex ministro de salud ahora es embajador, y la actual pinta para diputada. Así le pueden dejar el puesto a "Poronga" Moreno, que con cuatro gritos va hacer que esos Aedes Aegipti golpistas de porquería se las tomen de una vez por todas.